Backfire in Nepal: How India Lost The Plot to China

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Backfire in Nepal explores how China has become the ultimate beneficiary of India’s democracy-promotion agenda in Nepal. New Delhi had made a bold bet in 2005, but one that contained two mutually fortifying flaws: the abolition of the monarchy and the empowerment of the former Maoist rebels. The world’s only Hindu monarch and kingdom were bound to India in a special relationship that neither country needed to define or assert. True, Indians had been put off by successive Nepalese monarchs playing New Delhi off against Beijing. In retrospect, a little more compassion for Nepal’s compulsions might have put things into sharper relief. Nepalese Maoists, being communists first, were trained to denounce Indian ‘expansionism’ before American ‘imperialism’. Experience may have impelled the senior leadership to make practical compromises. It was a leap of faith for New Delhi to trust the leadership to rein in their cadres’ radicalism. More broadly, since India had also enlisted Western democracies, it needed to address their often-contradictory concerns throughout Nepal’s turbulent transition. The Chinese could act purely on their national interests. India continues to misread how Beijing sees Nepal – both in terms of China’s visions of the past and the future. This complicates the core trilateral challenge: ensuring that Nepal is not sucked deeper into the Sino-Indian vortex, only to be scorned for aggravating the Asian giants’ rivalry.

Sanjay Upadhya is a Nepalese journalist specializing in the country?s politics. Raised and educated in the United States, Thailand, India and Nepal, Upadhya was a Fulbright Scholar at New York University from 1993 to 1996. In a career spanning over two decades, Upadhya has worked for, among other organizations, The Rising Nepal, The Times (London), Inter Press Service and Khaleej Times (Dubai) and has reported from United Nations headquarters in New York City. Upadhya, who holds masters degrees in journalism and business administration, has appeared frequently on BBC World Service television and radio as a commentator on Nepalese political affairs. Author of hundreds of commentaries and analyses in English and Nepali, Upadhya contributed a widely quoted chapter on Nepal?s political evolution to ?State of Nepal,? published in 2002 by Kathmandu - based Himal Books. He also wrote a chapter on Nepal-India relations in the context of South Asian political and security dynamics for The India Doctrine, published in 2006 by Dhaka-based Bangladesh Research Forum.

Sanjay Upadhya

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